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ACUS11 KWNS 220706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220706
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-220830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0818
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...extreme northeast
New Mexico...southeast Colorado...and southwest Kansas...and far
western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 220706Z - 220830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms are increasing in coverage across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. An isolated large hail or gusty
thunderstorm wind will be possible through the night. Trends will be
monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorms developed during the evening
hours across southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the
northwest Texas Panhandle in response to modest warm-air advection
atop a stationary front across the area. These thunderstorms
organized into 2 or 3 primary thunderstorm cores, with the strongest
moving southeast across Dallam County, TX, and Cimarron County, OK.
Large hail is likely with this thunderstorm.

Additional thunderstorms are developing to the northeast of this
initial band of convection, with the strongest across Hansford
County, TX, as the persistent warm-air advection allows
surface-based parcels to isentropically ascend to their level of
free convection. Given the larger-scale environment across the area
-- 1000-1500 J/kg of most-unstable CAPE and 40-60 knots of effective
deep-layer shear -- updraft organization is possible for any
persistent updraft. Given the elevated nature of the thunderstorms,
large hail should be the primary threat, although brief, gusty
thunderstorm outflow cannot be ruled out. These thunderstorms are
expected to continue to develop/persist through the morning hours as
they move east, before weakening after sunrise as the low-level jet
veers and the warm-air advection/isentropic ascent weakens.

Trends will continue to be monitored for possible Severe
Thunderstorm issuance.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35870316 36830332 37420286 37630194 37250060 36549940
35189948 34830037 34980232 35870316



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