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ACUS11 KWNS 081902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081901
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-082100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0672
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Fri Jun 08 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Wyoming...western South
Dakota...and western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 081901Z - 082100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
across parts of the region through this evening, with a primary
threat of damaging winds and large hail. A couple tornadoes may also
occur, primarily in southwestern South Dakota. One or more watches
will be needed within the next two hours or so.

DISCUSSION...One-minute visible imagery exhibits several fields of maturing/towering cumulus across the region this afternoon. The
primary corridor for more rapid development exists from the Black
Hills southeastward along a weak surface trough, where satellite and
radar already have shown a few initial attempts at deep convective
initiation. An 18Z UNR sounding sampled warm 700mb temperatures
associated with the base of an EML, currently limiting convective
growth away from higher terrain. Therefore, initial development
should remain rooted to the Black Hills. However, gradual
moistening/cooling aloft will overspread the region from the west
and increase convective potential at lower elevations through the
afternoon.

Steep mid-level lapse rates, increasing effective shear, and
continued heating/moistening of the boundary layer will support a
primary threat of damaging winds and large hail within a mixture of
supercell and multicell modes. Additionally, south/southeastward
propagation east of the Black Hills may yield adequate
storm-relative helicity for a threat of a couple tornadoes, prior to
upscale growth by mid evening.

This threat over South Dakota will likely necessitate watch issuance
within the next two hours. Farther west/southwest into Wyoming,
higher-based convection will gradually intensify as it reaches
richer boundary-layer moisture with eastward extent, posing a
damaging wind and large hail threat as well. These cells could be
covered in the same watch as the SD threat or may be covered in a
later watch, pending the relative timing of the two threats.

..Picca/Grams.. 06/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 43270632 44710662 44950582 45270390 45260269 44860192
43710133 42340119 41540160 41410183 41270335 41330425
41520482 42360554 43270632



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