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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0008

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, January 04, 2019 12:06:28
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041106
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041105
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-041330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0008
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0505 AM CST Fri Jan 04 2019

    Areas affected...Far Southeast AL...Central FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 041105Z - 041330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
    are possible as the convective line continues eastward into
    southeast GA and the central FL Peninsula.

    DISCUSSION...Shallow convective line continues to push eastward
    across far southeast AL and the western/central FL Panhandle.
    Despite a general increase in updraft strength and echo tops, the
    line has remained devoid of any lightning onshore. Air mass ahead of
    the line has modified slightly, with dewpoints now in the 70s across
    the central FL Panhandle and mid 60s dewpoints as far north as ABY
    in far southwest GA. This has lead to a modest increase in
    instability with MLCAPE now estimated near 500 J/kg. Instability
    quickly drops off near the FL Big Bend where warm temperatures aloft
    remain in place and cooler low-level trajectories exist.

    Surface winds have backed ahead of the line and recent TLH VAD data
    suggests 0-1 km SRH over 250 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear near 30 kt. This
    favorable low-level shear coupled with sufficient instability
    supports the potential for mesovortices embedded in the convective
    line, particularly where deeper, more persistent updrafts exist. As
    such, isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are
    possible. Marginal nature of the threat and low probability of
    occurrence will preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 01/04/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31718511 31808465 31588423 30938394 30128408 29818467
    29688539 29948557 31008502 31718511



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