• Re: Had Hitler died on June 4, 1942

    From Phil McGregor@1:229/2 to Byker on Sunday, November 17, 2019 12:47:08
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: aspqrz@tpg.com.au

    On Sat, 16 Nov 2019 13:28:18 -0600, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    "John Dallman" wrote in message >news:memo.20191116150543.1784D@jgd.cix.co.uk...

    Joseph "Beppo" Schmid was in charge of Luftwaffe intelligence from the
    beginning of 1938 to late 1942. The intelligence used to plan the Battle
    of Britain was very defective, and his performance as a ground commander
    and in the Defence of the Reich campaign was unimpressive. His primary
    quality seemed to be his close friendship with Goering.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schmid

    From what I've learned about the Battle of Britain, the Luftwaffe, despite >their high losses, had all but exhausted the RAF. The British pilots were >getting so little sleep that they nodded off at the controls and shuffled >around like zombies. By the time Der Fuhrer threw in the towel, the RAF >hadn't so much "won" the Battle of Britain as the Luftwaffe LOST it: >https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCu7IT81gh8&t=21m22s

    Actually, not true at all. Not even close. A common set of 'everyone
    knows' factoids.

    The RAF only committed 55% of their fighter strength to active
    operational areas ... the remaining 45% remained, effectively, in
    reserve.

    The RAF was benefitting from the Empire Air Training Scheme which
    produced hundreds of pilots and aircrew every month in excess of
    operational needs.

    The RAF pilot total *increased* every month during the Battle of
    Britain - the Luftwaffe pilot total *decreased* every month in the
    same time period.

    RAF Fighter Pilots: ~800 in July, 950 in August, ~1050 in Spetember,
    ~1200 in October, ~1400 in November)

    RAF Pilot Losses: 68 in Julyt, 176 in August, 123 in September, 120 in
    October (Total = 487)

    Luftwaffe Fighter Pilots: ~500 in July, ~450 in August, ~375 in September-October-November.

    Luftwaffe Pilot Losses: 348 in July, 993 in August, 829 in September,
    492 in October (Total = 2662)

    The number of operational fighters available to the RAF in the SE and
    S operational areas remained much the same during the Battle ... and
    these were first line Hurricanes and Spitfires ... while the number of operational fighters available to the Luftwaffe (which included duds
    like the Me-110) decreased dramatically during the same period.

    RAF Fighters: ~850 in July, ~900 in August-September, ~800 in
    October-November.

    Luftwaffe Fighters: ~800 in July, ~750 in August, ~600 in September-October-November.

    Then, when you look at the number of sorties flown per day, the RAF
    flew as many as 10 for every one the Luftwaffe flew except during some
    weeks in august when they flew between 30-50% more. Giving them much
    more bang for their pounds.

    The thing is, we know all this with the benefit of postwar 20:20
    hindsight ... Churchill didn't know that the RAF was increasing in
    strength vis a vis the Luftwaffe *at the time* ... and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time* ... we only know this from the data becoming available post WW2.

    In fact, the RAF won the BoB handily while the leaders thought it was
    a close run thing, and the Luftwaffe lost the BoB decisively, even
    though the leaders believed they had fought the RAF to a standstill.
    Even so, the Air Ministry had realised by early 1941 that the BoB had
    been won, though the magnitude of the victory wasn't fully understood
    til German records could be examined after the war.

    Unfortunately, many (not all) generalist history books still rely on
    the beliefs expressed by the leaders in 1940 rather than on more
    recent, and more comprehensive, research.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Phil McGregor@1:229/2 to All on Sunday, November 17, 2019 16:35:11
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: aspqrz@tpg.com.au

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 15:15:35 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time*

    Hermann Göring would not have known these figures, but he did know that >something was going wrong. At Nuremberg, he stated that the losses were >sustainable and he could have kept going but what mucked up the NAZIs was
    the lack of shipping for Sealion. If so, the question is, what was the
    point of this air war?

    He wouldn't have known the RAF figures, sure, but he knew the
    Luftwaffe figures weren't sustainable ... but afaict he believed the
    RAF losses were equally unsustainable, so he seems to have believed
    there was some degree of Luftwaffe victory when, in fact, it was (as
    we now know) a clear defeat and the beginning of the end of the German
    air force.

    Hitler certainly didn't seem to believe the losses were sustainable in
    the face of prep for Barbarossa.

    What was the point of the BoB from the Nazi PoV?

    I am not entirely sure the Nazis had a clear agenda, or not a clear
    single agenda.

    I *think* there is evidence that Hitler suffered a version of 'victory
    disease' and believed that he could actually stage Sealion ... which
    the Kriegsmarine, at least, had a pretty good idea they couldn't, and
    tried repeatedly to tell High Command and Hitler, who completely
    ignored them.

    I *think* that there is also evidence that Hitler believed that the
    BoB and the threat of Sealion would force the UK to negotiate a peace favourable to Germany even though there isn't any real evidence that
    the UK would ever have considered such and a lot of historical
    evidence to suggest the exact opposite.

    I am pretty sure that Hitler had some inkling that leaving an
    unconquered or at least unemasculated UK at his rear for Barbarossa
    was not a good idea ... after all, the reason for the attack in the
    West was because he believed that a two front European war was largely
    what had led to Germany's defeat in WW1. Of course, this notion was
    impacted by the 'victory disease' and by the fact that the BoB wasn't
    seen to be a clear German defeat *at the time* so he eventually seems
    to have convinced himself that leaving an unconquered UK in his rear
    was no biggie ... an unfortunate delusion.

    Phil McGregor

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Byker@1:229/2 to John Dallman on Saturday, November 16, 2019 13:28:18
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: byker@do~rag.net

    "John Dallman" wrote in message news:memo.20191116150543.1784D@jgd.cix.co.uk...

    Joseph "Beppo" Schmid was in charge of Luftwaffe intelligence from the beginning of 1938 to late 1942. The intelligence used to plan the Battle
    of Britain was very defective, and his performance as a ground commander
    and in the Defence of the Reich campaign was unimpressive. His primary quality seemed to be his close friendship with Goering. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schmid

    From what I've learned about the Battle of Britain, the Luftwaffe, despite their high losses, had all but exhausted the RAF. The British pilots were getting so little sleep that they nodded off at the controls and shuffled around like zombies. By the time Der Fuhrer threw in the towel, the RAF
    hadn't so much "won" the Battle of Britain as the Luftwaffe LOST it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCu7IT81gh8&t=21m22s

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Dimensional Traveler@1:229/2 to SolomonW on Saturday, November 16, 2019 21:36:13
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: dtravel@sonic.net

    On 11/16/2019 8:15 PM, SolomonW wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time*

    Hermann Göring would not have known these figures, but he did know that something was going wrong. At Nuremberg, he stated that the losses were sustainable and he could have kept going but what mucked up the NAZIs was
    the lack of shipping for Sealion. If so, the question is, what was the
    point of this air war?

    To make it safe for the shipping they did have, obviously! :P

    Slightly more realistically in Hitler's mind it was probably to punish
    Britain for not surrendering and to scare them into doing so.


    --
    "You need to believe in things that aren't true. How else can they become?"

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Phil McGregor@1:229/2 to dtravel@sonic.net on Sunday, November 17, 2019 16:39:18
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: aspqrz@tpg.com.au

    On Sat, 16 Nov 2019 21:36:13 -0800, Dimensional Traveler
    <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:

    On 11/16/2019 8:15 PM, SolomonW wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time*

    Hermann Göring would not have known these figures, but he did know that
    something was going wrong. At Nuremberg, he stated that the losses were
    sustainable and he could have kept going but what mucked up the NAZIs was
    the lack of shipping for Sealion. If so, the question is, what was the
    point of this air war?

    To make it safe for the shipping they did have, obviously! :P

    Not a lot of coastal shipping to protect after the French surrender!
    U-Boats and the KM surface raiders, on the other hand ...

    Slightly more realistically in Hitler's mind it was probably to punish >Britain for not surrendering and to scare them into doing so.

    Yes, I suspect this was an important factor, though I am not sure the
    evidence is conclusive enough to say that it was the only factor.

    As I said in an above post, I strongly suspect that form of 'victory
    disease' was an important factor in Hitler's thinking about the BoB
    and Sealion.

    Phil McGregor

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From SolomonW@1:229/2 to Phil McGregor on Sunday, November 17, 2019 15:15:35
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: SolomonW@citi.com

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time*

    Hermann Göring would not have known these figures, but he did know that something was going wrong. At Nuremberg, he stated that the losses were sustainable and he could have kept going but what mucked up the NAZIs was
    the lack of shipping for Sealion. If so, the question is, what was the
    point of this air war?

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Byker@1:229/2 to Phil McGregor on Sunday, November 17, 2019 11:14:33
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: byker@do~rag.net

    "Phil McGregor" wrote in message news:o581te9cofgfas735n9bv4p6cmkmgrtt57@4ax.com...

    Unfortunately, many (not all) generalist history books still rely on the beliefs expressed by the leaders in 1940 rather than on more recent, and
    more comprehensive, research.

    Of interest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SdO-btKuds

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From SolomonW@1:229/2 to Phil McGregor on Sunday, November 17, 2019 23:58:04
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: SolomonW@citi.com

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 16:35:11 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 15:15:35 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time*

    Hermann Göring would not have known these figures, but he did know that >>something was going wrong. At Nuremberg, he stated that the losses were >>sustainable and he could have kept going but what mucked up the NAZIs was >>the lack of shipping for Sealion. If so, the question is, what was the >>point of this air war?

    He wouldn't have known the RAF figures, sure, but he knew the
    Luftwaffe figures weren't sustainable ...

    If so, he did not say it in Nuremberg.

    but afaict he believed the
    RAF losses were equally unsustainable,


    If so, then Göring would have though his losses were high it could be justified.

    ...


    Hitler certainly didn't seem to believe the losses were sustainable in
    the face of prep for Barbarossa.

    What was the point of the BoB from the Nazi PoV?


    *****
    This is the critical point, if Barbarossa goes ahead, then the air war in
    the battle of Britain is pointless for Germany, as it was conducted if
    Britain refuses to surrender.
    *****


    I am not entirely sure the Nazis had a clear agenda, or not a clear
    single agenda.

    Agreed.


    I *think* there is evidence that Hitler suffered a version of 'victory disease' and believed that he could actually stage Sealion ... which
    the Kriegsmarine, at least, had a pretty good idea they couldn't, and
    tried repeatedly to tell High Command and Hitler, who completely
    ignored them.

    At the start maybe but Hitler pretty soon decided that it was not worth the distraction for Barbarossa. He called off Sealion.


    I *think* that there is also evidence that Hitler believed that the
    BoB and the threat of Sealion would force the UK to negotiate a peace favourable to Germany

    At first agreed but later on, Hitler came to your view at (a) below.

    even though there isn't any real evidence that
    the UK would ever have considered such

    It was considered in the UK and rejected.


    and a lot of historical
    evidence to suggest the exact opposite.

    What Hitler wanted was time for his war in the East, there was considerable historical evidence from the Napoleonic era that Britain might make peace
    for a time which is all Hitler needed. A year or so of a cease-fire with Britain.




    (a)
    I am pretty sure that Hitler had some inkling that leaving an
    unconquered or at least unemasculated UK at his rear for Barbarossa
    was not a good idea ... after all, the reason for the attack in the
    West was because he believed that a two front European war was largely
    what had led to Germany's defeat in WW1. Of course, this notion was
    impacted by the 'victory disease' and by the fact that the BoB wasn't
    seen to be a clear German defeat *at the time* so he eventually seems
    to have convinced himself that leaving an unconquered UK in his rear
    was no biggie ... an unfortunate delusion.


    I agree with this too. The other issue is that time was not he felt on his side, the longer he waited, the more powerful the USSR would be.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Rich Rostrom@1:229/2 to Phil McGregor on Monday, November 18, 2019 02:57:11
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: rrostrom@comcast.net

    Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au> wrote:

    ... so he eventually seems to have convinced himself
    that leaving an unconquered UK in his rear was no
    biggie ... an unfortunate delusion.

    Part of Hitler's thinking was the idea that Britain
    was hoping for a powerful continental ally to do the
    heavy lifting. By conquering the USSR, he could close
    off that hope, and _then_ Britain would see reason
    and make peace.

    BTW - in early 1941, Molotov visited Berlin. Ribbentrop
    told him that Britain was completely defeated. "Then
    whose bombers are we hiding from?" (THey were in the
    shelter under the Foreign Ministry during an air raid.)
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to Byker on Monday, November 18, 2019 19:10:09
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Sat, 16 Nov 2019 13:28:18 -0600, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    From what I've learned about the Battle of Britain, the Luftwaffe, despite >their high losses, had all but exhausted the RAF. The British pilots were >getting so little sleep that they nodded off at the controls and shuffled >around like zombies. By the time Der Fuhrer threw in the towel, the RAF >hadn't so much "won" the Battle of Britain as the Luftwaffe LOST it: >https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCu7IT81gh8&t=21m22s

    Which begs the question how long could Hitler have kept it up had they
    chosen to? Could they have continued to the end of 1940 and if so how
    would Britain have responded?

    Bear in mind Churchill did seriously consider withdrawing #11 back 100
    or so miles beyond German fighter range. On the other hand both
    Coventry and Belfast were heavily bombed and both were beyond German
    fighter range.

    (The suffering in Belfast was mostly because after Coventry most AA
    guns had been withdrawn from Northern Ireland and Scotland to cover
    English cities and Belfast in particular was largely undefended which
    is how Belfast came to have the 3rd greatest civiliain losses behind
    London and Coventry - Belfast was not hit until 1941 but was badly
    damaged)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Rich Rostrom@1:229/2 to Phil McGregor on Monday, November 18, 2019 02:52:32
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: rrostrom@comcast.net

    Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au> wrote:

    In fact, the RAF won the BoB handily while the leaders thought it was
    a close run thing, and the Luftwaffe lost the BoB decisively, even
    though the leaders believed they had fought the RAF to a standstill.

    Oh, yes... It's important to realize that contemporary
    perception of events may be seriously mistaken. This
    is especially true when reliable metrics were not then
    available.

    For instance, Teddy Roosevelt thought he might lose the
    US election of 1904. Chief Justice Taney thought that
    either Fillmore or Fremont would win the US election of 1856.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to All on Monday, November 18, 2019 21:39:25
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    The RAF was benefitting from the Empire Air Training Scheme which
    produced hundreds of pilots and aircrew every month in excess of
    operational needs.

    Was that really true in 1940? I know the Canadian arm of that really
    only hit its stride in 1941 and really contributed in 42-43 but
    despite the presence of 1st Canadian division in England in September
    1940 (when it would have been the most powerful unit in England at the
    time of the Sealon that never was - long before 1943-44 when the Yanks
    were 'over-sexed, over-paid and over here") I am not aware the RCAF
    had much influence during the battle of Britain. And that was the
    largest element of the Empire ATS.

    The RAF pilot total *increased* every month during the Battle of
    Britain - the Luftwaffe pilot total *decreased* every month in the
    same time period.

    RAF Fighter Pilots: ~800 in July, 950 in August, ~1050 in Spetember,
    ~1200 in October, ~1400 in November)

    RAF Pilot Losses: 68 in Julyt, 176 in August, 123 in September, 120 in >October (Total = 487)

    Luftwaffe Fighter Pilots: ~500 in July, ~450 in August, ~375 in >September-October-November.

    Luftwaffe Pilot Losses: 348 in July, 993 in August, 829 in September,
    492 in October (Total = 2662)

    The number of operational fighters available to the RAF in the SE and
    S operational areas remained much the same during the Battle ... and
    these were first line Hurricanes and Spitfires ... while the number of >operational fighters available to the Luftwaffe (which included duds
    like the Me-110) decreased dramatically during the same period.

    RAF Fighters: ~850 in July, ~900 in August-September, ~800 in >October-November.

    Luftwaffe Fighters: ~800 in July, ~750 in August, ~600 in >September-October-November.

    Then, when you look at the number of sorties flown per day, the RAF
    flew as many as 10 for every one the Luftwaffe flew except during some
    weeks in august when they flew between 30-50% more. Giving them much
    more bang for their pounds.

    More importantly, between the Home Guard (which watched for downed RAF
    pilots and of whom one of their main roles in 1940 was returning
    pilots to their units) and the Royal Navy (particularly the RNVR) who
    recovered ejected pilots over the Channel and North Sea, many shot
    down pilots quickly returned to their units whereas a German pilot
    shot down over the UK learned what POW meant. (Many of whom ended up
    in Canada and later the US)

    The thing is, we know all this with the benefit of postwar 20:20
    hindsight ... Churchill didn't know that the RAF was increasing in
    strength vis a vis the Luftwaffe *at the time* ... and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time* ... we only know this from the data becoming available post WW2.

    Interesting - what's your source on this? I've read Churchill's 6
    volume history and didn't see any mention of that (those books were
    written mostly 1948-52 if that helps)

    In fact, the RAF won the BoB handily while the leaders thought it was
    a close run thing, and the Luftwaffe lost the BoB decisively, even
    though the leaders believed they had fought the RAF to a standstill.
    Even so, the Air Ministry had realised by early 1941 that the BoB had
    been won, though the magnitude of the victory wasn't fully understood
    til German records could be examined after the war.

    In fairness Churchill spoke many times on the RAF and he definitely
    knew that praising them was very good for public morale.

    Unfortunately, many (not all) generalist history books still rely on
    the beliefs expressed by the leaders in 1940 rather than on more
    recent, and more comprehensive, research.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to All on Monday, November 18, 2019 22:06:40
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 16:39:18 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    Not a lot of coastal shipping to protect after the French surrender!
    U-Boats and the KM surface raiders, on the other hand ...

    Are you talking about the British or Germans? If the latter don't
    forget that Germany still had the power to evacuate 1/4 million people (somewhat comparable to Dunkirk) from the Baltic States even in 1945.

    Slightly more realistically in Hitler's mind it was probably to punish >>Britain for not surrendering and to scare them into doing so.

    In my opinion this was THE single most important contribution of
    Churchill. Who else but WSC could have said "we shall fight them on
    the beaches, we shall never surrender"? (Admittedly and with MUCH less
    fanfare he ALSO said that he would deploy poison and biological
    weapons on the beaches of England if a Sealion occured and they were
    in any danger of seizing a port. For obvious reasons discussions of
    poison gas on English soil didn't get the fanfare that "we shall never surrender" got - although to be fair that particular speech was
    written more for FDR's benefit than the British people generally

    Yes, I suspect this was an important factor, though I am not sure the >evidence is conclusive enough to say that it was the only factor.

    As I said in an above post, I strongly suspect that form of 'victory
    disease' was an important factor in Hitler's thinking about the BoB
    and Sealion.

    Very true - and a smashed Sealion would tell the world the complete
    opposite. When you look at the suicide of Langsdorf (captain of the
    Graf Spee) you can readily see Hitler wasn't the only one with that
    attitude.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From SolomonW@1:229/2 to The Horny Goat on Tuesday, November 19, 2019 17:48:26
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: SolomonW@citi.com

    On Mon, 18 Nov 2019 21:39:25 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    The RAF was benefitting from the Empire Air Training Scheme which
    produced hundreds of pilots and aircrew every month in excess of >>operational needs.

    Was that really true in 1940? I know the Canadian arm of that really
    only hit its stride in 1941 and really contributed in 42-43 but
    despite the presence of 1st Canadian division in England in September
    1940 (when it would have been the most powerful unit in England at the
    time of the Sealon that never was - long before 1943-44 when the Yanks
    were 'over-sexed, over-paid and over here") I am not aware the RCAF
    had much influence during the battle of Britain. And that was the
    largest element of the Empire ATS.

    From what I understand, most of it was in this period run through Canada.
    The pilots were trained in Australia, then sent to Canada for more training
    and only then to battle. It was only in late 1940, that the first of these pilots were in action but which stage the battle of Britain was over.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to All on Monday, November 18, 2019 21:48:50
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 23:58:04 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    I agree with this too. The other issue is that time was not he felt on his >side, the longer he waited, the more powerful the USSR would be.

    Given when the battle for France ended I do not think a 1940 assault
    could have been attempted unless the even more insane idea that an
    attack could have been launched with France undamaged in the rear.

    No question the Russian winter of 1940-41 was far milder than 1941-42
    but there was not nearly the time left in the 1940 campaigning season
    to do nearly the damage to the Red Army that was done in OTL's 1941.

    (And yes I do think the Germans could have stopped the French close to
    their western frontier - and bear in mind that Mussolini only entered
    the war after Dunkirk and the German approach to Paris.)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Rich Rostrom@1:229/2 to The Horny Goat on Tuesday, November 19, 2019 09:20:24
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: rrostrom@comcast.net

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    Who else but WSC could have said "we shall fight
    them on the beaches, we shall never surrender"?

    Churchill himself said "It was the British people who
    had the lion's heart; I was merely privileged to give
    the lion's roar."
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Phil McGregor@1:229/2 to All on Wednesday, November 20, 2019 10:43:56
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: aspqrz@tpg.com.au

    On Mon, 18 Nov 2019 22:06:40 -0800, The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca>
    wrote:

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 16:39:18 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    Not a lot of coastal shipping to protect after the French surrender! >>U-Boats and the KM surface raiders, on the other hand ...

    Are you talking about the British or Germans? If the latter don't
    forget that Germany still had the power to evacuate 1/4 million people >(somewhat comparable to Dunkirk) from the Baltic States even in 1945.

    Indeed.

    Two words.

    Wilhelm Gustloff.

    Sure, the Germans had merchant ships in the Baltic. They were *needed*
    in the Baltic to ship, amongst other things, Swedish Iron ore and
    supplies for Barbarossa.

    They didn't risk them in the English Channel or North Sea where the RN
    would have trashed them.

    Phil

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to All on Tuesday, November 19, 2019 07:01:28
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:48:26 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    Was that really true in 1940? I know the Canadian arm of that really
    only hit its stride in 1941 and really contributed in 42-43 but
    despite the presence of 1st Canadian division in England in September
    1940 (when it would have been the most powerful unit in England at the
    time of the Sealon that never was - long before 1943-44 when the Yanks
    were 'over-sexed, over-paid and over here") I am not aware the RCAF
    had much influence during the battle of Britain. And that was the
    largest element of the Empire ATS.

    From what I understand, most of it was in this period run through Canada.
    The pilots were trained in Australia, then sent to Canada for more training >and only then to battle. It was only in late 1940, that the first of these >pilots were in action but which stage the battle of Britain was over.

    OK so pretty much what I remember - that Battle of Britain was pretty
    much over by late Oct 1940 (though as said previously Belfast was Feb
    and May 1941 and was the 3rd heaviest hit city after London and
    Coventry) so if I remembered Spring 1941 and it was actually Nov/Dec
    1940 that's reasonably close particularly in terms of where the
    fighting was. By Nov/Dec Churchill was shipping air reinforcements to
    North Africa...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Rich Rostrom@1:229/2 to The Horny Goat on Tuesday, November 19, 2019 09:24:09
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: rrostrom@comcast.net

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    (Many of whom ended up in Canada and later the US)

    And one of whom got back to Germany...

    "The One That Got Away"
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Phil McGregor@1:229/2 to All on Wednesday, November 20, 2019 11:02:30
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: aspqrz@tpg.com.au

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:48:26 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    From what I understand, most of it was in this period run through Canada.
    The pilots were trained in Australia, then sent to Canada for more training >and only then to battle. It was only in late 1940, that the first of these >pilots were in action but which stage the battle of Britain was over.

    True, to a point.

    The EATS was supposed to train 50,000 a year ... 28,000 in the
    Dominions and Colonies and the remaining 22,000 in the UK.

    So it was the UK cohort of the EATS who bolstered the pilot numbers consistently during the BoB.

    Phil McGregor

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Phil McGregor@1:229/2 to All on Wednesday, November 20, 2019 10:58:13
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: aspqrz@tpg.com.au

    On Mon, 18 Nov 2019 21:39:25 -0800, The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca>
    wrote:

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    The RAF was benefitting from the Empire Air Training Scheme which
    produced hundreds of pilots and aircrew every month in excess of >>operational needs.

    Was that really true in 1940? I know the Canadian arm of that really
    only hit its stride in 1941 and really contributed in 42-43 but
    despite the presence of 1st Canadian division in England in September
    1940 (when it would have been the most powerful unit in England at the
    time of the Sealon that never was - long before 1943-44 when the Yanks
    were 'over-sexed, over-paid and over here") I am not aware the RCAF
    had much influence during the battle of Britain. And that was the
    largest element of the Empire ATS.

    The Scheme was supposed to train 22000 a year from the UK alone. Sure,
    the Canadians didn't start until the end of April 1940.

    The first pilots from Australia arrived at the end of October.

    But Britain was already training pilots and, as you can see from the
    figures I provided, the number of Fighter Pilots increased overall
    every month ... by hundreds.

    What's interesting is that this figure doesn't cover the actual number
    of Pilots involved ... the overall figure (Pilots flying at least one
    sortie) is 2937 ... a thousand more than the 1400 November figure and
    the 487 losses.

    Figures are all available online.

    The thing is, we know all this with the benefit of postwar 20:20
    hindsight ... Churchill didn't know that the RAF was increasing in
    strength vis a vis the Luftwaffe *at the time* ... and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the >>time* ... we only know this from the data becoming available post WW2.

    Interesting - what's your source on this? I've read Churchill's 6
    volume history and didn't see any mention of that (those books were
    written mostly 1948-52 if that helps)

    Well, the Air Ministry, as noted below, realised that the BoB had been
    won in 1941.

    I guess Churchill didn't emphasise it partly because it didn't suit
    the heroic narrative he was selling in those books and partly because
    he wrote them (IIRC) without specific reference (in them) to any
    primary or even secondary sources

    In fact, the RAF won the BoB handily while the leaders thought it was
    a close run thing, and the Luftwaffe lost the BoB decisively, even
    though the leaders believed they had fought the RAF to a standstill.
    Even so, the Air Ministry had realised by early 1941 that the BoB had
    been won, though the magnitude of the victory wasn't fully understood
    til German records could be examined after the war.

    In fairness Churchill spoke many times on the RAF and he definitely
    knew that praising them was very good for public morale.

    Indeed. And selling the heroic myth of 'The Few' played as well after
    the war.

    Phil McGregor

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to All on Tuesday, November 19, 2019 16:33:01
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 10:43:56 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    Are you talking about the British or Germans? If the latter don't
    forget that Germany still had the power to evacuate 1/4 million people >>(somewhat comparable to Dunkirk) from the Baltic States even in 1945.

    Indeed.

    Two words.

    Wilhelm Gustloff.

    Sure, the Germans had merchant ships in the Baltic. They were *needed*
    in the Baltic to ship, amongst other things, Swedish Iron ore and
    supplies for Barbarossa.

    They didn't risk them in the English Channel or North Sea where the RN
    would have trashed them.

    Phil

    I don't know the name you're referencing but no question given the
    importance of Swedish iron ore in the German economy there's no way
    the Germans would have risked those freighters in the North Sea.

    The operation against Narvik was probably the riskiest operation
    undertken by the Wehrmacht in the entire war. Had the British taken
    and held Narvik I have no doubt the Brits would have invaded Northern
    Sweden sometime between 1941-43 to take the iron fields even knowing
    the Swedish army was at least 5 times the size of the 1940 Norwegian
    army.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to All on Tuesday, November 19, 2019 17:55:27
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 10:58:13 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    But Britain was already training pilots and, as you can see from the
    figures I provided, the number of Fighter Pilots increased overall
    every month ... by hundreds.

    What's interesting is that this figure doesn't cover the actual number
    of Pilots involved ... the overall figure (Pilots flying at least one
    sortie) is 2937 ... a thousand more than the 1400 November figure and
    the 487 losses.

    Figures are all available online.

    Is that the entire RAF or is it just 11 Fighter Group? (The one
    covering SE England especially London)

    The thing is, we know all this with the benefit of postwar 20:20 >>>hindsight ... Churchill didn't know that the RAF was increasing in >>>strength vis a vis the Luftwaffe *at the time* ... and Goering didn't >>>know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the >>>time* ... we only know this from the data becoming available post WW2.

    Interesting - what's your source on this? I've read Churchill's 6
    volume history and didn't see any mention of that (those books were
    written mostly 1948-52 if that helps)

    Well, the Air Ministry, as noted below, realised that the BoB had been
    won in 1941.

    Which is why Belfast people were so irate about the bombings in Feb
    and May 1941 - nearly all the AA guns had been moved to southern
    England and there were only a few fighters. The view in London was
    that the Luftwaffe bombers wouldn't go beyond fighter range so cities
    beyond that line didn't need much air defence.

    Which was mostly true until Belfast was hit and defences were NOT
    improved in the three months before the second raid. The point of
    course is that Liverpool and Belfast were the two most important
    shipbuilding cities in the UK and #3 wasn't close.

    (My maternal grandmother's father was one of the shipbuilders who
    built the Titanic in those same yards. No great distinction - it was
    by far the largest employment project in Belfast in 1907-11 and if you
    were a Belfast tradesman and any good at your trade at all they hired
    you! Despite its sinking the White Star Line did built 2 more Titanic
    class ships both of which served for 30+ years. There has been only
    one ship sunk by an iceberg since then and that was in 1943 when
    U-boats were more worrisome than icebergs... )

    During one of the raids a German bomber got lost and managed to drop
    his load on Dublin destroying the synagogue there. The next day De
    Valera called in the German ambassador and told him he WOULD pay for
    the rebuilding of the synagogue and if he wouldn't he would call
    Churchill who undoubtedly would. The synagogue had their centenary in
    1992 and it is said the rabbi took great pleasure in telling onlookers
    that they were worshipping in the only synagogue ever built by the
    Third Reich!

    I guess Churchill didn't emphasise it partly because it didn't suit
    the heroic narrative he was selling in those books and partly because
    he wrote them (IIRC) without specific reference (in them) to any
    primary or even secondary sources

    Likely true - by 1948-52 he was Leader of the Opposition and a big
    priority of his was polishing the mystique of 1939-45 towards the next election.

    Indeed. And selling the heroic myth of 'The Few' played as well after
    the war.

    Absolutely - did you ever listen to his 8 May 1945 "This is your
    victory" speech from the Ministry of Health? (That's the one where he
    leads the crowd in Land of Hope and Glory at the end) That speech
    absolutely supports your point.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Phil McGregor@1:229/2 to All on Thursday, November 21, 2019 00:10:36
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: aspqrz@tpg.com.au

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:55:27 -0800, The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca>
    wrote:

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 10:58:13 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    But Britain was already training pilots and, as you can see from the >>figures I provided, the number of Fighter Pilots increased overall
    every month ... by hundreds.

    What's interesting is that this figure doesn't cover the actual number
    of Pilots involved ... the overall figure (Pilots flying at least one >>sortie) is 2937 ... a thousand more than the 1400 November figure and
    the 487 losses.

    Figures are all available online.

    Is that the entire RAF or is it just 11 Fighter Group? (The one
    covering SE England especially London)

    I'm pretty sure it includes the two Groups facing the Luftwaffe as
    they are the figures listed for BoB RAF pilot numbers, 11 Group (7
    Spitfire, 14 Hurricane and 2 Defiant Squadrons) in the SE and 10 Group
    (5 Hurricane and 3 Spitfire Squadrons, plus a Gladiator Squadron) in
    the SW, which was also engaged, though not as heavily.

    The German figures are for BoB Fighter squadrons afaict.

    Phil

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From SolomonW@1:229/2 to Phil McGregor on Wednesday, November 20, 2019 22:38:22
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: SolomonW@citi.com

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 11:02:30 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:48:26 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    From what I understand, most of it was in this period run through Canada. >>The pilots were trained in Australia, then sent to Canada for more training >>and only then to battle. It was only in late 1940, that the first of these >>pilots were in action but which stage the battle of Britain was over.

    True, to a point.

    The EATS was supposed to train 50,000 a year ... 28,000 in the
    Dominions and Colonies and the remaining 22,000 in the UK.

    So it was the UK cohort of the EATS who bolstered the pilot numbers consistently during the BoB.

    Phil McGregor


    Reading the Wiki, I doubt that it was UK EATS, the first of these EATS was
    sent to Britain in Oct 1941.

    https://www.wikiwand.com/en/British_Commonwealth_Air_Training_Plan

    "The United Kingdom was considered an unsuitable location for air training,
    due to the possibility of enemy attack, the strain caused by wartime
    traffic at airfields and the unpredictable weather, so the plan called for
    the facilities in the Dominions to train British and each other's
    aircrews."


    I unclear where these pilots came from, but I think they may have been
    existing pilots who were retrained. Reading the reports, it appears that
    their lack of experience was a problem. Although Britain had more pilots
    and planes in numbers at the end of the Battle of Britain, I doubt many
    were of the same quality as at the start.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Phil McGregor@1:229/2 to All on Thursday, November 21, 2019 00:00:29
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: aspqrz@tpg.com.au

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 22:38:22 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 11:02:30 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:48:26 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    From what I understand, most of it was in this period run through Canada. >>>The pilots were trained in Australia, then sent to Canada for more training >>>and only then to battle. It was only in late 1940, that the first of these >>>pilots were in action but which stage the battle of Britain was over.

    True, to a point.

    The EATS was supposed to train 50,000 a year ... 28,000 in the
    Dominions and Colonies and the remaining 22,000 in the UK.

    So it was the UK cohort of the EATS who bolstered the pilot numbers
    consistently during the BoB.

    Phil McGregor


    Reading the Wiki, I doubt that it was UK EATS, the first of these EATS was >sent to Britain in Oct 1941.

    https://www.wikiwand.com/en/British_Commonwealth_Air_Training_Plan

    "The United Kingdom was considered an unsuitable location for air training, >due to the possibility of enemy attack, the strain caused by wartime
    traffic at airfields and the unpredictable weather, so the plan called for >the facilities in the Dominions to train British and each other's
    aircrews."

    It doesn't actually say that the UK wasn't used, and it does actually
    say that she was to responsible for 22,000 per year ... maybe that was
    the limit that was believed to be possible.

    Also, note that the Pilots reaching the UK in October were NOT trained
    in the UK.

    I unclear where these pilots came from, but I think they may have been >existing pilots who were retrained. Reading the reports, it appears that >their lack of experience was a problem. Although Britain had more pilots
    and planes in numbers at the end of the Battle of Britain, I doubt many
    were of the same quality as at the start.

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were
    sending newly trained pilots to operational units, but, then, so were
    the Germans ... and German pilot training, throughout the war, never
    even came close to reaching the industrial levels of the EATS.

    Also note that Allied pilots in general were trained to much higher
    standards for the simple reason that they were given many more flying
    hours of instruction even at this early stage as the Germans were
    suffering from training hour restrictions due to their overall lack of
    fuel.

    The high kill numbers of individual German aces is actually a case in
    point ... the Germans couldn't afford to pull them out of frontline
    combat so they were kept there till they died.

    Phil McGregor

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From SolomonW@1:229/2 to The Horny Goat on Wednesday, November 20, 2019 19:27:30
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: SolomonW@citi.com

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:55:27 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:

    During one of the raids a German bomber got lost and managed to drop
    his load on Dublin destroying the synagogue there. The next day De
    Valera called in the German ambassador and told him he WOULD pay for
    the rebuilding of the synagogue and if he wouldn't he would call
    Churchill who undoubtedly would. The synagogue had their centenary in
    1992 and it is said the rabbi took great pleasure in telling onlookers
    that they were worshipping in the only synagogue ever built by the
    Third Reich!

    Nice story

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to All on Wednesday, November 20, 2019 06:18:33
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 00:10:36 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    I'm pretty sure it includes the two Groups facing the Luftwaffe as
    they are the figures listed for BoB RAF pilot numbers, 11 Group (7
    Spitfire, 14 Hurricane and 2 Defiant Squadrons) in the SE and 10 Group
    (5 Hurricane and 3 Spitfire Squadrons, plus a Gladiator Squadron) in
    the SW, which was also engaged, though not as heavily.

    The German figures are for BoB Fighter squadrons afaict.

    My point of course was that by no means the entire RAF was in
    southeast England during July - December 1940 and the RAF took losses
    elsewhere as well. No question 11th Group's theatre was the most
    important but not the entire story - and Churchill DID send aircraft
    to North Africa and Malta at the very end of the year when the main
    onslaught against London was done.

    (The raid on Taranto was in November 1940 after all....)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Phil McGregor@1:229/2 to All on Friday, November 22, 2019 02:17:24
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: aspqrz@tpg.com.au

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 19:55:45 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 00:00:29 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were
    sending newly trained pilots to operational units,

    In the book "The most dangerous enemy by Stephen Bungay" on p373, there
    is a short discussion on this question. He does not state the reasons why >exactly, but he is firm that these British replacement pilots were not
    nearly as good as the old one.

    Well, yes, they lacked the overall flying hours that the pre-war RAF
    and early Phoney War RAF Pilots had by the BoB ... and it took a while
    for the EATS to ramp up not only the flow through numbers but also the
    level of skill imparted.

    This was one of the advantages of the Allied system in general, they
    DIDN'T keep their pilots flying till they died, hence the far smaller
    kill totals of the Allied Aces compared to the German ones ... the
    Allies pulled back experienced pilots and used them to train the new
    pilots and, as the war progressed, training hours for Allied Pilots
    kept on increasing while those for German ones kept decreasing.

    Average Flying Hours Before Combat

    Commonwealth: 150-200 (Pre-War), ~250 (1942), 335 (1943), 340 (1944)
    US: 140 (Pre-War), 320 (1943), 360 (1944)
    Germany: 150-200 (Pre-War), 240 (1942), 170 (1943), 110 (1944)

    Having said that, this problem would have affected the Germans too. Their >replacement pilots would need time to learn, which is basically what you >said.

    Indeed.

    Phil

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Rich Rostrom@1:229/2 to The Horny Goat on Thursday, November 21, 2019 16:34:57
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: rrostrom@comcast.net

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    Had the British taken and held Narvik ...

    The Allies did take Narvik (I write "Allies"
    because the French _Chasseurs Alpins_ were
    heavily involved).

    However, after the fall of southern Norway
    to the Germans, and with the collapse of
    France, Narvik was deemed untenable.

    I wonder though - given the terrain, could a
    determined garrison hold out? The Allies would
    also keep northern Norway, which has effects on
    Finland; it would also secure the convoy route
    to Murmansk. And here's a big question: would
    the Axis be able to hold the Petsamo nickel
    mines, and how important was Petsamo nickel?



    ...I have no doubt the Brits would have invaded
    Northern Sweden sometime between 1941-43 to take
    the iron fields...

    Very unlikely. By that time, Germany had the Briey
    fields in France, Britain would not want to
    force Sweden into the Axis, and German forces
    operating through and with Sweden would easily
    recapture the Kiruna mines _and_ take Narvik.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From SolomonW@1:229/2 to Phil McGregor on Thursday, November 21, 2019 19:55:45
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: SolomonW@citi.com

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 00:00:29 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were sending newly trained pilots to operational units,




    In the book "The most dangerous enemy by Stephen Bungay" on p373, there
    is a short discussion on this question. He does not state the reasons why exactly, but he is firm that these British replacement pilots were not
    nearly as good as the old one.



    Having said that, this problem would have affected the Germans too. Their replacement pilots would need time to learn, which is basically what you
    said.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to All on Thursday, November 21, 2019 07:43:09
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 19:55:45 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 00:00:29 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were
    sending newly trained pilots to operational units,

    In the book "The most dangerous enemy by Stephen Bungay" on p373, there
    is a short discussion on this question. He does not state the reasons why >exactly, but he is firm that these British replacement pilots were not
    nearly as good as the old one.

    Having said that, this problem would have affected the Germans too. Their >replacement pilots would need time to learn, which is basically what you >said.

    This affects all pilots wth the possible excepton of the Soviets who
    suffered such losses on 22 Jun 1941. It has been extensively talked
    about how much poorer the Japanese fleet air arm was after Midway than
    before..

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to rrostrom@comcast.net on Thursday, November 21, 2019 23:33:04
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 16:34:57 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    Had the British taken and held Narvik ...

    The Allies did take Narvik (I write "Allies"
    because the French _Chasseurs Alpins_ were
    heavily involved).

    However, after the fall of southern Norway
    to the Germans, and with the collapse of
    France, Narvik was deemed untenable.

    Thus my comment - the important part was AND HELD which they didn't.

    Given when they took it the Germans had already broken the Somme and
    the battles that led to Dunkirk were underway so it was not at all
    clear how long the French would remain and whether Narvik could be
    held by the British (admittedly with 'their Poles') without them.

    I wonder though - given the terrain, could a
    determined garrison hold out? The Allies would
    also keep northern Norway, which has effects on
    Finland; it would also secure the convoy route
    to Murmansk. And here's a big question: would
    the Axis be able to hold the Petsamo nickel
    mines, and how important was Petsamo nickel?

    I would be amazed if these questions were not asked by the British
    government but the question seems to be British doubt that Narvik
    could be held particularly as the Germans were thought to have local
    air superiority. Petsamo is a LONG way from Narvik and has a rail
    line to the rest of Finland so I'm skeptical Britain ever had a
    reasonable chance of actually taking it.

    ...I have no doubt the Brits would have invaded
    Northern Sweden sometime between 1941-43 to take
    the iron fields...

    Very unlikely. By that time, Germany had the Briey
    fields in France, Britain would not want to
    force Sweden into the Axis, and German forces
    operating through and with Sweden would easily
    recapture the Kiruna mines _and_ take Narvik.

    The Swedish army at that time was 20-25 divisions nearly entirely
    infantry with most of northern Sweden completely unsuitable for armor
    for much of the year. On second thought given British strength in
    1942-43 (e.g. before US forces were a big factor) it's difficult to
    imagine that kind of force particularly as I cannot imagine FDR
    preferring a Norweigian raid into Sweden in preference to Torch.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From SolomonW@1:229/2 to The Horny Goat on Saturday, November 23, 2019 21:01:56
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: SolomonW@citi.com

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 07:43:09 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 19:55:45 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 00:00:29 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were
    sending newly trained pilots to operational units,

    In the book "The most dangerous enemy by Stephen Bungay" on p373, there
    is a short discussion on this question. He does not state the reasons why >>exactly, but he is firm that these British replacement pilots were not >>nearly as good as the old one.

    Having said that, this problem would have affected the Germans too. Their >>replacement pilots would need time to learn, which is basically what you >>said.

    This affects all pilots wth the possible excepton of the Soviets who
    suffered such losses on 22 Jun 1941.

    In 1941, they were throwing in pilots that had almost no training and from
    what I read it was only towards the end of ww2 that Russian pilot training
    in hours started equaling Western training times.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to All on Saturday, November 23, 2019 12:37:36
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Sat, 23 Nov 2019 21:01:56 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were >>>> sending newly trained pilots to operational units,

    In the book "The most dangerous enemy by Stephen Bungay" on p373, there >>>is a short discussion on this question. He does not state the reasons why >>>exactly, but he is firm that these British replacement pilots were not >>>nearly as good as the old one.

    Having said that, this problem would have affected the Germans too. Their >>>replacement pilots would need time to learn, which is basically what you >>>said.

    This affects all pilots wth the possible excepton of the Soviets who
    suffered such losses on 22 Jun 1941.

    In 1941, they were throwing in pilots that had almost no training and from >what I read it was only towards the end of ww2 that Russian pilot training
    in hours started equaling Western training times.

    I apologize for leaving the impression that I thought Red Air Force
    pilots were as good as Allied and German pilots - perhaps by 1945 but
    a LOT of not so superb pilots were dead.

    My reference to 22 June 1941 (which I presume most here know was the
    day the Germans invaded Russia) was simply that the Red Air Force lost
    roughly 1000 planes that day many on the ground. This had the result
    that during the 1941 they mostly flew whatever they had available and
    many of these were NOT up to 1940-41 standards - some of these dated
    back to the 1920s.

    The first Soviet "airborne" operations were in fact during the 1941-42 counteroffensive where troops were dropped behind German lines to join
    up with the partisans. The story is that a common method of
    "paratrooping" was for the plane to fly as low to the ground as
    possible and for the men to jump into as deep a snowbank as they could
    spot from the air - WITHOUT PARACHUTES. I've read stories that have to
    be apocryphal as to how many jumped that way but there are too many
    stories of that sort for this not to have been used in a few cases.
    There is no suggestion this was ever attempted other than in the
    deepest of winter.

    To me it seems too "Bartholomew Bandy-ish" to have ever been a
    widespread practice. (Apologies to those unfamiliar with Donald Jack's
    hero)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to All on Saturday, November 23, 2019 23:03:45
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Sun, 24 Nov 2019 13:46:08 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    I apologize for leaving the impression that I thought Red Air Force
    pilots were as good as Allied and German pilots - perhaps by 1945 but
    a LOT of not so superb pilots were dead.

    How good they were is disputed, there was an air battle during ww2 where
    the Russians and the US fought and technically the Russians won.

    When was this battle? If it happened at all it had to be somewhere
    near the Elbe in 1945 and as I said the Red Air Force was pretty
    competent by then.

    Totally different situation from 1941 - no one suggests the Red Air
    Force in the first 6 months of the invasioni were at the standard of
    the RAF or Luftwaffe over Britain in 1940. Some individual pilots were
    but not overall by a long shot.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From SolomonW@1:229/2 to The Horny Goat on Sunday, November 24, 2019 13:46:08
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: SolomonW@citi.com

    On Sat, 23 Nov 2019 12:37:36 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:

    On Sat, 23 Nov 2019 21:01:56 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were >>>>> sending newly trained pilots to operational units,

    In the book "The most dangerous enemy by Stephen Bungay" on p373, there >>>>is a short discussion on this question. He does not state the reasons why >>>>exactly, but he is firm that these British replacement pilots were not >>>>nearly as good as the old one.

    Having said that, this problem would have affected the Germans too. Their >>>>replacement pilots would need time to learn, which is basically what you >>>>said.

    This affects all pilots wth the possible excepton of the Soviets who
    suffered such losses on 22 Jun 1941.

    In 1941, they were throwing in pilots that had almost no training and from >>what I read it was only towards the end of ww2 that Russian pilot training >>in hours started equaling Western training times.

    I apologize for leaving the impression that I thought Red Air Force
    pilots were as good as Allied and German pilots - perhaps by 1945 but
    a LOT of not so superb pilots were dead.


    How good they were is disputed, there was an air battle during ww2 where
    the Russians and the US fought and technically the Russians won.







    https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Air_battle_over_Ni%C5%A1




    Later in the war, a Russian ace was attacked by several US planes, and
    he shot them down.



    My reference to 22 June 1941 (which I presume most here know was the
    day the Germans invaded Russia) was simply that the Red Air Force lost roughly 1000 planes that day many on the ground. This had the result
    that during the 1941 they mostly flew whatever they had available and
    many of these were NOT up to 1940-41 standards - some of these dated
    back to the 1920s.

    The first Soviet "airborne" operations were in fact during the 1941-42 counteroffensive where troops were dropped behind German lines to join
    up with the partisans. The story is that a common method of
    "paratrooping" was for the plane to fly as low to the ground as
    possible and for the men to jump into as deep a snowbank as they could
    spot from the air - WITHOUT PARACHUTES. I've read stories that have to
    be apocryphal as to how many jumped that way but there are too many
    stories of that sort for this not to have been used in a few cases.
    There is no suggestion this was ever attempted other than in the
    deepest of winter.

    To me it seems too "Bartholomew Bandy-ish" to have ever been a
    widespread practice. (Apologies to those unfamiliar with Donald Jack's
    hero)


    The Russians did experiment with dropping paratroopers without parachutes.

    https://books.google.com.au/books?id=GeALYXiy9sMC&pg=PA295&lpg=PA295&dq=Russian+WW2+soldiers+dropped+from+planes+without+parachutes+into+snow?&source=bl&ots=iVOEDVJWgj&sig=-uK3CUH9MsTnAPVg6qT3_OBUN_E&hl=en&sa=X&ved=
    0ahUKEwjl3PbQzo7OAhUMHB4KHVMnDLUQ6AEIQzAG#v=onepage&q=Russian%20WW2%20soldiers%20dropped%20from%20planes%20without%20parachutes%20into%20snow%3F&f=false

    Loss rates were about 50%, and experiments were soon abandoned.

    I found this discussion on the web about it.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/4ugqvh/is_it_true_russian_ww2_soldiers_were_dropped_from/

    going over it, I feel that it may have happened ad-hoc, but that is about
    it.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Rich Rostrom@1:229/2 to The Horny Goat on Monday, November 25, 2019 01:08:37
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: rrostrom@comcast.net

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    Petsamo is a LONG way from Narvik...

    But is adjacent to northern Norway, and very
    distant from the rest of Finland - and also
    adjacent to the USSR.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Chrysi Cat@1:229/2 to The Horny Goat on Sunday, November 24, 2019 10:11:33
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: chrysicat@gmail.com

    On 11/24/2019 12:03 AM, The Horny Goat wrote:
    On Sun, 24 Nov 2019 13:46:08 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    I apologize for leaving the impression that I thought Red Air Force
    pilots were as good as Allied and German pilots - perhaps by 1945 but
    a LOT of not so superb pilots were dead.

    How good they were is disputed, there was an air battle during ww2 where
    the Russians and the US fought and technically the Russians won.

    When was this battle? If it happened at all it had to be somewhere
    near the Elbe in 1945 and as I said the Red Air Force was pretty
    competent by then.

    Totally different situation from 1941 - no one suggests the Red Air
    Force in the first 6 months of the invasioni were at the standard of
    the RAF or Luftwaffe over Britain in 1940. Some individual pilots were
    but not overall by a long shot.


    Read the article (though preferably replacing the for-profit Wikiwand
    address with the corresponding Wikipedia one). It's in Serbia almost
    exactly 75 years ago.

    It's also P-38s, which weren't really suitable dogfighters, against
    YAK-9s. Euro Theatre P-38s were not given to the best American pilots at
    that point-there are P-51s all over the European skies instead.

    --
    Chrysi Cat
    1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
    Transgoddess, quick to anger.
    Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to rrostrom@comcast.net on Monday, November 25, 2019 17:54:02
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Mon, 25 Nov 2019 01:08:37 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    Petsamo is a LONG way from Narvik...

    But is adjacent to northern Norway, and very
    distant from the rest of Finland - and also
    adjacent to the USSR.

    It's not all that close to the portion of Finland that the Soviets
    annexed after the war - which includes Petsamo.

    Google says 900+ km by road and 635 km from Narvik to Murmansk by air.

    As opposed to roughly 1000km by air from Narvik to Oslo

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From The Horny Goat@1:229/2 to All on Monday, November 25, 2019 17:48:49
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: lcraver@home.ca

    On Sun, 24 Nov 2019 10:11:33 -0700, Chrysi Cat <chrysicat@gmail.com>
    wrote:

    Totally different situation from 1941 - no one suggests the Red Air
    Force in the first 6 months of the invasioni were at the standard of
    the RAF or Luftwaffe over Britain in 1940. Some individual pilots were
    but not overall by a long shot.


    Read the article (though preferably replacing the for-profit Wikiwand
    address with the corresponding Wikipedia one). It's in Serbia almost
    exactly 75 years ago.

    It's also P-38s, which weren't really suitable dogfighters, against
    YAK-9s. Euro Theatre P-38s were not given to the best American pilots at
    that point-there are P-51s all over the European skies instead.

    I saw the link AFTER I wrote my last posting and yes it was over Nis
    in the former Yugoslavia in Nov 1944. I agree with you that the main
    air front would have been over Germany itself at that time. And no
    question the P-38 was a fine airplane in 1942-43 it had been
    completely eclipsed by the P-51 by late 1944.

    (I have an employee who was born in FYROM and came to Canada at age
    10-11 - she's in her late 20s now - and is amazed at how well I know Yugoslavian towns by name. I tell her I am a chess player and a LOT of
    those towns hosted major chess tournaments in the Tito era. I have
    asked her several times for the correct pronunciation as the mostly Serbo-Croatian pronunciations don't readily flow off the lips of most
    North Americans.)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From SolomonW@1:229/2 to Chrysi Cat on Monday, November 25, 2019 20:03:41
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if
    From: SolomonW@citi.com

    On Sun, 24 Nov 2019 10:11:33 -0700, Chrysi Cat wrote:

    On 11/24/2019 12:03 AM, The Horny Goat wrote:
    On Sun, 24 Nov 2019 13:46:08 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    I apologize for leaving the impression that I thought Red Air Force
    pilots were as good as Allied and German pilots - perhaps by 1945 but
    a LOT of not so superb pilots were dead.

    How good they were is disputed, there was an air battle during ww2 where >>> the Russians and the US fought and technically the Russians won.

    When was this battle? If it happened at all it had to be somewhere
    near the Elbe in 1945 and as I said the Red Air Force was pretty
    competent by then.

    Totally different situation from 1941 - no one suggests the Red Air
    Force in the first 6 months of the invasioni were at the standard of
    the RAF or Luftwaffe over Britain in 1940. Some individual pilots were
    but not overall by a long shot.


    Read the article (though preferably replacing the for-profit Wikiwand
    address with the corresponding Wikipedia one).


    I prefer it.

    It's in Serbia almost
    exactly 75 years ago.

    It's also P-38s, which weren't really suitable dogfighters, against
    YAK-9s. Euro Theatre P-38s were not given to the best American pilots at
    that point-there are P-51s all over the European skies instead.

    There were 22 different versions of the YAK-9, all with very different
    fighting charateristics. I am not sure which one it was.

    Having said that, I doubt there was much different between the P-38 and
    P-51. The big issue is that the P-51 was much cheaper.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)
  • From Byker@1:229/2 to The Horny Goat on Wednesday, December 11, 2019 10:03:18
    XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if, sci.military.naval
    XPost: uk.politics.misc
    From: byker@do~rag.net

    "The Horny Goat" wrote in message news:o3atte9172nomgeqrvb16mpmi4bc1md2fq@4ax.com...

    There are stories of how gliders killed every man on board when they tried
    to land a jeep or anti-tank gun by glider and the moorings in the glider
    gave way - even when they WEREN'T under German fire.

    How to make defeat sound like "victory":

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyJTUL9S4zU

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)